Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted Gross Margin | Q3 2024 | “Slightly below 31%” | 29.9% (calculated from Total Revenue of 3,751.3 and COGS of 2,630.7, i.e. (3751.3−2630.7)/3751.3) | Met |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
$2+ billion EBITDA by 2026 | Q2: No specific mention; only related cost-saving targets. Q1/Q4: Not mentioned. | Reaffirmed commitment and timeline despite slow start for 2025, with accelerated cost actions and margin focus | Emphasized in Q3; not covered in detail in earlier quarters |
Shift from Consumer/DIY to Professional | Q2: Noted a significant shift to professional users. Q1: Ongoing negative DIY, positive pro. Q4: Same trend. | Weaker DIY (3% decline) versus strong Professional demand | Consistent negative DIY, positive pro |
DEWALT Brand Strength | Q2: Fifth consecutive quarter of growth, strong promotions. Q1: Highlighted pro-driven growth. Q4: Continued strength, boosting shares. | Sixth consecutive quarter of growth; market share gains | Recurring strong performance, stable positive trend |
Supply Chain Transformation & China | Q2: Transformation updates, no explicit China detail. Q1: Reduced reliance on China (40%→20%-25%). Q4: Centers of excellence for flexibility. | Showed progress on cost savings; scenario planning for tariffs; facility changes | Ongoing focus, more explicit in Q1 and Q3 |
Macroeconomic & Consumer Headwinds (Tools & Outdoor) | Q2: Noted soft consumer environment. Q1: Muted DIY, driving volume declines. Q4: 8% decline in Tools & Outdoor. | Soft consumer sentiment; Tools & Outdoor -3% volumes | Persistent negative sentiment across all quarters |
2–3x Market Growth & 35%+ Gross Margins | Q2: Continued ambitions for outsized growth, 35%+ margins. Q1: Same goals despite soft macro. Q4: Focus on reaching 35%+ margin. | Reiterated confidence in 2–3x market growth and 35%+ margin targets | Stable optimism across periods |
Portfolio Optimization & Divestitures | Q2: Infrastructure sale completed; debt reduction. Q1: Further pruning in Industrial under review. Q4: Infrastructure business divested. | Only modest pruning mentioned for leverage goals | Ongoing strategic focus, less detail in Q3 |
Return to Normal Promotional Activity | Q2: Normal seasonal promos; consumers responsive. Q1: Back to historical promo levels. Q4: Expected 2019-level promos. | No mention in Q3 | Absent in Q3, otherwise noted in prior quarters |
Outdoor Segment Below 2019 Levels | Q1: Well below 2019, persistent weakness. Q4: Still below 2019. No Q2 mention. | Not mentioned for Q3 | Discussed in Q1/Q4; not mentioned Q2/Q3 |
Automotive Sector Headwinds | Q2: Global auto headwinds flagged. Q1: Noted positive auto trends, no headwinds. Q4: No explicit auto headwinds. | Auto production not fully recovered, hitting Industrial segment | Negative trend emerged in Q2, continued in Q3 |
Investments in Innovation ($100M–$500M) | Q2: $300–$500M planned to spur growth. Q1: $100M incremental for pro-driven innovation. Q4: Similar $100M for 2024. | $100M in 2024 for brand, innovation, and tech | Recurring commitment, consistent across quarters |
-
Gross Margin and EBITDA Outlook
Q: Is the 35% gross margin target still achievable next year?
A: Management remains confident in achieving a 35%+ gross margin in the fourth quarter of next year and reaching $2+ billion EBITDA by 2026, though timing may vary due to headwinds like softer sales and auto market delays. -
Sales Outlook for Next Year
Q: Do you expect sales to be flat or down next year?
A: They anticipate a flat to down start in 2025, more likely down, due to soft and choppy tools demand and ongoing auto headwinds, with updates to come when they provide guidance. -
Accelerated Cost Initiatives
Q: What are the accelerated activities to drive margin expansion?
A: They are accelerating initiatives in sourcing, footprint, and platforming, with a key focus on footprint actions to unlock margin improvements in 2025. -
Shift to Organic Growth Strategy
Q: How are you shifting from M&A focus to organic growth?
A: They are focusing on core brands, aligning around a brand-centric culture, enhancing innovation for professional users, speeding time to market, and investing in front-end activities to drive market share gains. -
North America Market Share Dynamics
Q: What's happening with market share in North America?
A: They are confident of being stable to slightly growing in market share this year; DEWALT brand is gaining share, while CRAFTSMAN is more impacted by weaker DIY consumer trends; they expect additional momentum as the consumer strengthens, especially in the back half of next year.
Research analysts covering STANLEY BLACK & DECKER.