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    STANLEY BLACK & DECKER (SWK)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 31, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$102.92Last close (Oct 28, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$94.75Open (Oct 29, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-8.17(-7.94%)
    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Adjusted Gross Margin
    Q3 2024
    “Slightly below 31%”
    29.9% (calculated from Total Revenue of 3,751.3 and COGS of 2,630.7, i.e. (3751.3−2630.7)/3751.3)
    Met
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    $2+ billion EBITDA by 2026

    Q2: No specific mention; only related cost-saving targets. Q1/Q4: Not mentioned.

    Reaffirmed commitment and timeline despite slow start for 2025, with accelerated cost actions and margin focus

    Emphasized in Q3; not covered in detail in earlier quarters

    Shift from Consumer/DIY to Professional

    Q2: Noted a significant shift to professional users. Q1: Ongoing negative DIY, positive pro. Q4: Same trend.

    Weaker DIY (3% decline) versus strong Professional demand

    Consistent negative DIY, positive pro

    DEWALT Brand Strength

    Q2: Fifth consecutive quarter of growth, strong promotions. Q1: Highlighted pro-driven growth. Q4: Continued strength, boosting shares.

    Sixth consecutive quarter of growth; market share gains

    Recurring strong performance, stable positive trend

    Supply Chain Transformation & China

    Q2: Transformation updates, no explicit China detail. Q1: Reduced reliance on China (40%→20%-25%). Q4: Centers of excellence for flexibility.

    Showed progress on cost savings; scenario planning for tariffs; facility changes

    Ongoing focus, more explicit in Q1 and Q3

    Macroeconomic & Consumer Headwinds (Tools & Outdoor)

    Q2: Noted soft consumer environment. Q1: Muted DIY, driving volume declines. Q4: 8% decline in Tools & Outdoor.

    Soft consumer sentiment; Tools & Outdoor -3% volumes

    Persistent negative sentiment across all quarters

    2–3x Market Growth & 35%+ Gross Margins

    Q2: Continued ambitions for outsized growth, 35%+ margins. Q1: Same goals despite soft macro. Q4: Focus on reaching 35%+ margin.

    Reiterated confidence in 2–3x market growth and 35%+ margin targets

    Stable optimism across periods

    Portfolio Optimization & Divestitures

    Q2: Infrastructure sale completed; debt reduction. Q1: Further pruning in Industrial under review. Q4: Infrastructure business divested.

    Only modest pruning mentioned for leverage goals

    Ongoing strategic focus, less detail in Q3

    Return to Normal Promotional Activity

    Q2: Normal seasonal promos; consumers responsive. Q1: Back to historical promo levels. Q4: Expected 2019-level promos.

    No mention in Q3

    Absent in Q3, otherwise noted in prior quarters

    Outdoor Segment Below 2019 Levels

    Q1: Well below 2019, persistent weakness. Q4: Still below 2019. No Q2 mention.

    Not mentioned for Q3

    Discussed in Q1/Q4; not mentioned Q2/Q3

    Automotive Sector Headwinds

    Q2: Global auto headwinds flagged. Q1: Noted positive auto trends, no headwinds. Q4: No explicit auto headwinds.

    Auto production not fully recovered, hitting Industrial segment

    Negative trend emerged in Q2, continued in Q3

    Investments in Innovation ($100M–$500M)

    Q2: $300–$500M planned to spur growth. Q1: $100M incremental for pro-driven innovation. Q4: Similar $100M for 2024.

    $100M in 2024 for brand, innovation, and tech

    Recurring commitment, consistent across quarters

    1. Gross Margin and EBITDA Outlook
      Q: Is the 35% gross margin target still achievable next year?
      A: Management remains confident in achieving a 35%+ gross margin in the fourth quarter of next year and reaching $2+ billion EBITDA by 2026, though timing may vary due to headwinds like softer sales and auto market delays.

    2. Sales Outlook for Next Year
      Q: Do you expect sales to be flat or down next year?
      A: They anticipate a flat to down start in 2025, more likely down, due to soft and choppy tools demand and ongoing auto headwinds, with updates to come when they provide guidance.

    3. Accelerated Cost Initiatives
      Q: What are the accelerated activities to drive margin expansion?
      A: They are accelerating initiatives in sourcing, footprint, and platforming, with a key focus on footprint actions to unlock margin improvements in 2025.

    4. Shift to Organic Growth Strategy
      Q: How are you shifting from M&A focus to organic growth?
      A: They are focusing on core brands, aligning around a brand-centric culture, enhancing innovation for professional users, speeding time to market, and investing in front-end activities to drive market share gains.

    5. North America Market Share Dynamics
      Q: What's happening with market share in North America?
      A: They are confident of being stable to slightly growing in market share this year; DEWALT brand is gaining share, while CRAFTSMAN is more impacted by weaker DIY consumer trends; they expect additional momentum as the consumer strengthens, especially in the back half of next year.

    Research analysts covering STANLEY BLACK & DECKER.